The worst appears to be over. Although we have heard this story many times for the last ten years, ZenithOptimedia dared to issue a forecast with positive growth – albeit modest - for the next two years. The fact that Japan no longer shows a minus in front of its projection already represents a major scoop. Yet, it will be a long time before Japan returns to its 1997 peak in magazine advertising spending of ¥439 billion (about US$3.5 billion), but the third largest magazine market in the world in adspend (after the US and Germany) has shown some recent positive signs of resurgence. ZenithOptimedia remains prudent in its projection: “ Despite the apparent recovery at the beginning of 2003, we do not expect the (overall) ad market to grow by more than 0.8% in 2003 and we forecast the subsequent recovery to be very slow”. Magazines are expected “to inch up .2%” in the second half of 2003. To return to the e-newsletter, click your browser's "Back" button, or click here.
After two painful consecutive years of negative growth (including -9.6% in 2002), the magazine industry should return to positive territory in 2004. Business and finance magazines have been the most affected by the advertising recession with a cut in spending of 30.6% last year. Although general interest and youth magazines suffered nearly as much, the special interest magazines were spared by the downturn. In 2003, the impact of SARS affected all media sectors. However, the long-term horizon for magazines in Hong Kong remains challenging: the industry next year should realise only 46.9% of the advertising revenue received in 2000. To return to the e-newsletter, click your browser's "Back" button, or click here.
“Although Australia’s economy has remained strong compared to most of the world (with stable employment, steady growth and high consumer spending), marketers are reluctant to commit to future spending and bookings remain short term” comments ZenithOptimedia. However, this analysis might be viewed as fairly conservative in view of the strong local economy with most listed companies expected to deliver double-digit earnings growth in the current fiscal year (ending June 2004). For 2003, Australian Consolidated Press just announced a pre-tax earnings increase by a record 58% to A$175 million (US$118 million). According to the current level of “projects” or “tests”, Australia could next year experience a record number of magazine launches, which is certainly a sign of the vitality of the local magazine industry. To return to the e-newsletter, click your browser's "Back" button, or click here.
The economy was officially pronounced in a state of recession when ZenithOptimedia’s Forecasts appeared. Everything is relative and many countries would pay dearly to have South Korea’s current bad performance (3.1% GDP growth, 3.6% unemployment, $132 billion of foreign exchange reserves). After an actual 15.6% magazine advertising growth in 2002, the current situation obviously looks depressing. However, the country showed in 1998 an amazing ability to bounce back. Furthermore, the economic fundamentals are strong and if consumer confidence picks up, next year should be good. Prepare for another double-digit growth in magazine advertising spending by 2005. To return to the e-newsletter, click your browser's "Back" button, or click here.
The war in Iraq and SARS have postponed the recovery after the 2001 recession, followed by a sluggish year. However, ZenithOptimedia issued a highly positive report on Taiwan: “we expect the ad market as a whole to recover from the SARS effect in the second half of the year and predict 6.8% in expenditure for the whole of 2003.” The magazine industry is even expected to outperform overall growth this year, moving on to more stable growth in 2004 “but we forecast magazines to grow slightly more rapidly in 2005.” Magazines in Taiwan now have the record in the Asia-Pacific region of the highest market share in advertising among all media expenditure with a solid 12.6% rate. To return to the e-newsletter, click your browser's "Back" button, or click here.
Although China is still well below the world average in terms of advertising spending as a percentage of GDP, the country is catching up quickly. Television is increasing its market share at the expense of newspapers, which will probably suffer even more in the coming months following the Government decision to cancel the mandatory subscriptions to many newspapers and publications by the various local authorities. New print titles authorizations will most likely remain limited and the magazine industry market share of advertising spending is unlikely to increase its current minuscule 2.9% ratio of all media expenditure. Therefore, the expected double-digit growth - for the third consecutive year - should benefit handsomely to the existing magazines published in China. To return to the e-newsletter, click your browser's "Back" button, or click here.
“Ad expenditure (all media combined) grew 38% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2003, and we expect this sort of robust growth to continue throughout the year” wrote ZenithOptimedia in its report published just prior to the July terrorist attacks in Jakarta. However, media spending was only slightly affected by the Bali bombing a year ago and it is likely the country will continue to progress in its spectacular expansion, which benefits substantially a new emerging magazine industry. The market share among media is still low at 5.5%. However with a stable economy, solid consumer spending, low interest rates and the best performing currency in Asia recently, Indonesia becomes a market that international magazine publishers need to consider seriously. To return to the e-newsletter, click your browser's "Back" button, or click here.
The second fastest growing economy in this report has experienced record growth in 2003: during the first four months of 2003 “magazines grew 28%” says ZenithOptimedia, whose double-digit forecast for next year could actually be more aggressive. The magazine industry in Thailand is growing faster than the rest of the other media and increasing its still modest 5.7% share of total advertising expenditure. With this record, Thai magazines should hold by 2005 the absolute expansion record in the region with seven consecutive years of double-digit growth (in constant prices). To return to the e-newsletter, click your browser's "Back" button, or click here.
ZenithOptimedia issued an extremely positive report: “2002 was a great year for the New Zealand media market (…), so far 2003 seems to be an equally strong year for advertising, although most pundits are somewhat bemused by the strength of forward bookings”. Although the current growth will probably not be as strong in 2004, real growth remains good for 2005. The magazine industry has already taken a healthy 11.1% market share of all media expenditure, which is slightly better than Australia’s 10.5% market share. To return to the e-newsletter, click your browser's "Back" button, or click here.
After a painful recession in 2002 - when magazine advertising spending shrank by 20% - the industry in Malaysia is expected to return to robust growth and to maintain it in 2005 (when the 2001 level of spending should be restored). Although the local magazine industry still has a small 4.2% market share of all media spending, it is currently expanding faster than the total spend (+8.2% for magazines vs. +3.4% overall). To return to the e-newsletter, click your browser's "Back" button, or click here.
It is still difficult to evaluate the effect of SARS on all media spending, except to say it was severe during the second quarter this year. Therefore, the significant double-digit growth in magazine expenditure for 2004 probably simply reflects a correction of a crisis year coming after a bad year of recession. Actually, 2004 should be equal to 2001 (at current prices). However, the magazine industry - which still suffers from a small 3.9% share of all media spend - should experience in 2004 for the fist time a percentage of expansion three times faster than the dominant newspaper sector (10.2% vs. 3.4%). To return to the e-newsletter, click your browser's "Back" button, or click here. PHILIPPINES AND INDIA These countries have been excluded because they only report "Print Media" spending and not specifically the magazine advertising spending
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