Media Convergence Asia-Pacific
Issue 17 | January 2009
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Media Convergence Asia-Pacific is happy to send you this CONFIDENTIAL newsletter about recent developments in the region. This regular newsletter will be sent to media companies' CEO's and senior executives.

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Didier Guérin
President

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Copyright 2008


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Inside this issue:

  
  

  • 2009 Asia-Pacific Magazine Advertising Forecasts
  • Country by Country Projections for 2009
  • The four Dos and Don’ts of magazine publishing for 2009
  • Famous Quote

2009 Asia-Pacific Magazine Advertising Forecasts:
  • Overall growth of 4.1% in Asia-Pacific
  • Decrease of 6.9% in the US and 6.4% in Europe
  • China to expand by 14.3%
  • Japan and India to contract

While Europe and the US are expected to see a further reduction of magazine advertising spending in 2009 compared with 2008, the Asia-Pacific region will continue to expand during the same period. GroupM predicts the four largest markets in the region – excluding Japan - will expand by an average of 4.1% in 2009, down from 8.4% the year before.

As usual China will continue to fuel the expansion of the region with an expected growth of 14.3%, compared with 21.8% in 2008. Australia – which now falls below China in magazine advertising spending – should remain flat (-0.3% compared with +0.7% in 2008) while South Korea will have a slower growth in 2009 (+1.4%) than during the previous year (+2.6%). The biggest surprise of GroupM's "This Year, Next Year" (December 2008) advertising forecasts is India, which is expected to drop by 10% compared with a 10% growth in 2008.

Although Japan remains the largest market in magazine advertising in the region, it continues to decline (-9% in 2009) to come back to the level of magazine advertising spending it experienced about ten years ago.

Meantime the US magazine industry is expected to contract by 6.9% (following a drop of 5.3% in 2008) and the four largest markets in Europe should follow a similar trend averaging a drop of 6.4% in 2009, down from a negative growth of 3.6% in 2008 (Germany: -2%; UK: -11.5%; France: -3.1% and Italy: -7%).

In the last ten years, Media Convergence Asia-Pacific (MCAP) has presented forecasts in magazine advertising spending for the new up-coming year. Based on the data from ZenithOptimedia and GroupM, these projections were based on a country-by-country market analysis usually finalised during the month of July. The present analysis has been the most difficult to make ever. We started with the July 2008 projections which came at the same time as the sub-prime financial crisis was starting to be exposed. New figures came in October at the time when the worldwide economy was slowing down. Finally, the following GroupM’s projections published in mid-December take into consideration the financial and economic turbulence of 2008.

GroupM is the parent company to WPP media agencies including MAXUS, MediaCom, Mediaedge:cia and Mindshare. With worldwide billing in excess of US$50 billion and 110,000 employees, GroupM operates more than 2,000 offices in 106 countries.


Magazine Advertising Expenditure


Country by Country Projections for 2009

Source: GroupM Forecasts - December 2008

 JAPAN

Growth over
previous year

Magazine Advertising
(in million Yen and
at current prices)


2007
2008
2009

-4.0%
-15.0%
-9.0%

458,500
389,725
354,650



 CHINA

Growth over
previous year

Magazine Advertising
(in million RMB and
at current prices)


2007
2008
2009

18.8%
22.0%
14.3%

3,281
4,003
4,575



 AUSTRALIA

Growth over
previous year

Magazine Advertising
(in million A$ and
at current prices)


2007
2008
2009

4.2%
0.7%
-0.3%

898
904
901



 SOUTH KOREA

Growth over
previous year

Magazine Advertising
(in million Won and
at current prices)


2007
2008
2009

3.6%
2.6%
1.4%

428,999
440,299
446,403



 TAIWAN

Growth over
previous year

Magazine Advertising
(in million NT$ and
at current prices)


2007
2008
2009

1.5%
1.0%
-0.2%

6,454
6,519
6,508



 HONG KONG

Growth over
previous year

Magazine Advertising
(in million HK$ and
at current prices)


2007
2008
2009

14.4%
8.1%
2.0%

4,252
4,595
4,687



 INDIA

Growth over
previous year

Magazine Advertising
(in million Rupees and
at current prices)


2007
2008
2009

16.0%
10.0%
-10.0%

7,300
8,030
7,227



 NEW ZEALAND

Growth over
previous year

Magazine Advertising
(in million NZ$ and
at current prices)


2007
2008
2009

2.4%
-5.1%
-4.9%

257
244
232



 THAILAND

Growth over
previous year

Magazine Advertising
(in million Baht and
at current prices)


2007
2008
2009

-12.9%
-2.7%
-6.1%

4,687
4,560
4,280



 INDONESIA

Growth over
previous year

Magazine Advertising
(in billion Rupiah and
at current prices)


2007
2008
2009

9.4%
27.0%
20.0%

824
1,046
1,255



 SINGAPORE

Growth over
previous year

Magazine Advertising
(in million Sing$ and
at current prices)


2007
2008
2009

0.2%
-3.4%
-3.5%

88
85
82



 MALAYSIA

Growth over
previous year

Magazine Advertising
(in million Ringgit and
at current prices)


2007
2008
2009

6.7%
1.7%
-2.9%

166
169
164


The four Dos and Don’ts of magazine publishing for 2009:  
Invented by the US edition of Glamour, the "Dos and Don'ts" feature was designed to help young women how to dress with elegance. The world of magazine publishing has been far too much affected by the exuberance and irrationality of the finance world without any elegance. A few basic advice are provided below:

DON'T give-up on magazines

The industry has been threatened before by several recessions. Magazines will not disappear off the planet and magazines continue to have a great future.

DO invest internationally

Remember your Business 101 text book: diversify your exposure by expanding internationally. The magazine industry in Asia is far from mature and many opportunities still exist, especially in China where growth is high and investment is low.

DON'T stop market research

The market is changing. Readers' interests are changing. Is your editorial content keeping up with the change? This is a good time to do a little research to measure if your magazines' editorial direction keeps in line with readers’ interests.

DO continue to promote your magazines

Keep investing in your brands. In times of uncertainty, consumers tend to stick with what they know best. When everyone else cuts down on promotion, going against the trend gives more mileage to your dollar. This is the best time to increase market share at a reasonable price.

Checkout how many magazines Media Convergence Asia-Pacific has launched . . .


Famous Quote:  

Christie Hefner"Challenging times create new
opportunities to take risks.

Expanding outside one's domestic
market is a good risk.

Expanding to Asia is a must.
"

Francis Morel
CEO
Le Figaro
Paris, December 2008

Copyright © 2008 - Media Convergence Asia-Pacific. All rights reserved.