- Overall growth of 4.1% in Asia-Pacific
- Decrease of 6.9% in the US and 6.4% in Europe
- China to expand by 14.3%
- Japan and India to contract
While Europe and the US are expected to see a further reduction of magazine advertising spending in 2009 compared with 2008, the Asia-Pacific region will continue to expand during the same period. GroupM predicts the four largest markets in the region – excluding Japan - will expand by an average of 4.1% in 2009, down from 8.4% the year before.
As usual China will continue to fuel the expansion of the region with an expected growth of 14.3%, compared with 21.8% in 2008. Australia – which now falls below China in magazine advertising spending – should remain flat (-0.3% compared with +0.7% in 2008) while South Korea will have a slower growth in 2009 (+1.4%) than during the previous year (+2.6%). The biggest surprise of GroupM's "This Year, Next Year" (December 2008) advertising forecasts is India, which is expected to drop by 10% compared with a 10% growth in 2008.
Although Japan remains the largest market in magazine advertising in the region, it continues to decline (-9% in 2009) to come back to the level of magazine advertising spending it experienced about ten years ago.
Meantime the US magazine industry is expected to contract by 6.9% (following a drop of 5.3% in 2008) and the four largest markets in Europe should follow a similar trend averaging a drop of 6.4% in 2009, down from a negative growth of 3.6% in 2008 (Germany: -2%; UK: -11.5%; France: -3.1% and Italy: -7%).
In the last ten years, Media Convergence Asia-Pacific (MCAP) has presented forecasts in magazine advertising spending for the new up-coming year. Based on the data from ZenithOptimedia and GroupM, these projections were based on a country-by-country market analysis usually finalised during the month of July. The present analysis has been the most difficult to make ever. We started with the July 2008 projections which came at the same time as the sub-prime financial crisis was starting to be exposed. New figures came in October at the time when the worldwide economy was slowing down. Finally, the following GroupM’s projections published in mid-December take into consideration the financial and economic turbulence of 2008.
GroupM is the parent company to WPP media agencies including MAXUS, MediaCom, Mediaedge:cia and Mindshare. With worldwide billing in excess of US$50 billion and 110,000 employees, GroupM operates more than 2,000 offices in 106 countries.
 |