- Overall growth of 3.2% across the region
- Contraction of 8% in the US and 9.9% in Europe
- China to expand by 4.1%
- Japan continues to contract, India is flat
- Indonesia is the fastest growing market: +20%
The news is good for Asia, but not so good for Europe and the US.
The Asia Pacific region seems to have hit the bottom of the global economic downturn and is expected to head into a mild recovery in 2010. In the 11 largest countries in the region (excluding Japan), magazine advertising spending is expected to grow by 3.2% next year, reversing its first ever decline of 6.2% this year. Meantime, magazine markets in Europe and the US are expected to continue to contract by 9.9% and 8% respectively.
In its recently released Worldwide Media and Marketing Forecasts, GroupM* sees China as the leader of growth in Asia with a 4.1% increase in magazine advertising spending. But it will be far from the engine room of regional growth it has been over the last eight years. Going back to positive territory are Hong Kong, Australia, South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand.
For the third consecutive year, in 2010 US magazine advertising spending is expected to fall by 8% (after a 6% drop this year and -7.2% in 2008) to a total of $25.9 billion - approximately the level of advertising dollars in 2001. This situation is actually much better than the 21.2% decline for the first half of 2009, as just reported by Publishers Information Bureau (PIB) for US consumer magazines.
In Europe, the 2009 annus horribilis is coming to an end. The four largest European markets should experience a reduced erosion of their magazine advertising spending next year, from France (-6.3% compared with -17% in 2009), to the UK (-9.5% compared with -17.2% in 2009), to Germany (-10% compared with -17.5% in 2009) and to Italy (-20% compared with -24.9% in 2009).
* GroupM is the parent company of WPP Group media agencies including MAXUS, MediaCom, Mediaedge:cia and Mindshare. With worldwide billing in excess of US$60 billion, GroupM operates more than 42 offices in 81 countries. With a slightly bleaker picture, Publicis Group subsidiary, ZenithOptimedia, also published its "Advertising Expenditures Forecasts", which will be reviewed separately.
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