Differences in relative prices, currency fluctuations and level of purchasing power make a market-to-market comparison difficult for the region. However, a rapid snapshot of the main countries by size of advertising magazines spending shows the following:
Japan still represents more than 65% of the total magazine advertising investment in the region. Although, the GDP growth is expected to slow this year and moderately resume in 2002, magazine advertising - which experienced a negative growth last year – is expected to make a mild recovery this year (+1%). Even if it will take several years for the local magazine industry to return to the all time high of 1997, Japan remains the most rewarding magazine market in terms of volume in the region.
Australia, which is by far the second largest magazine market in the region, will need to have a fabulous third and fourth quarter to reach Zenith Media’s predicted growth of 5.8% in 2001, following a spectacular growth last year (+6.8%). However, even if magazine advertising spending should exceed the 2% expected GDP growth this year, Zenith Media puts Australia in the short list of countries where the magazine industry growth will be slowing over the next two years.
Hong Kong, which has managed to attract remarkable advertising spending despite its small population, should be the only market in the region with no growth this year. However, it reached last year an all time high in magazine spending (+23%) and it is forecasted to return to a healthy 5% growth in 2002.
South Korea is projected to begin an economic recovery in mid-2001 with a pick-up in consumption and another double-digit magazine advertising growth (as experienced steadily year-on-year since the Asian crisis in 1998). Although it will not come close to the 25% increase of last year, magazine advertising spending in Korea should continue to grow two to three times faster than the GDP.
Taiwan should return in 2002 to the brisk growth of the last few years once
its political instability and its IT driven economy have adjusted.
However, it already appears the 10% growth predicted by Zenith Media for this
year will be a real challenge for the local magazine industry.
For the long term though, magazines in Taiwan remain a safe bet as Zenith Media
predicts a shift to print, away from the saturated local television spending
"which takes an extraordinarily high share of budgets even by Asian standards".
China - although it is far from being the second market in the region for the magazine industry - is experiencing its fourth consecutive year of magazine advertising growth in excess of 20%. Zenith Media says: "the magazine industry is set to take off (and) increased affluence among urban Chinese women in particular will fuel ad spend growth in the sector".
Thailand still represents only about half of China’s spending. However, it should experience the largest advertising growth in the region this year and compete with China’s five-year growth record. However, a high inflation could seriously affect the net result. Zenith Media believes Thai magazines are still a secondary medium: "they are seen as a luxury to most Thais, and perhaps also suffer from the popularity of newspapers".
Singapore should continue to be of no surprise with its "glacially stable" market share and sustained growth of the smallest market with the highest per capita income in the region.
The other two – yet much smaller - markets not included here are Indonesia
and Malaysia, which represent good future prospects, especially the first
one. Finally, the most vulnerable (in the short term) Philippines and India could not be covered here because no specific data is available for magazines yet.