JAPAN	Magazine Advertising Growth over previous year (Million) 2001 -1.6 % ¥430,000 2002 0 430,000 2003 +1.2 435,000
	Outlook: Slowing growth Magazine Ad Share (2000): 9.7%

"The outlook for consumer staples like foods and cosmetics remains weak after three consecutive years of slumping household consumption." Whereas it remains the second largest consumer market in the world, in terms of magazine advertising spend, Japan is now the third largest country after the US and Germany. "However, the price of media has not been significantly affected" and Japan remains not only the largest advertising market in Asia-Pacific, but also one of the countries with the highest CPM.

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"Many on-target magazines were born in 2001 which allows variety selection for advertisers". However, Zenith Media forecasts a slight improvement next year due to a shift in spending from Outdoor and Transport advertising to magazines "because of the high entry cost". Whereas Hong Kong overall media spend is expected to decrease overall by 5.8% in 2002, the magazine industry should be the only sector to not experience a negative growth.

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The slowdown in advertising spending growth over the last two years pushed Australia to the third largest market, slightly below Hong Kong. "Magazines and radio did not enjoy the growth in 2000 that TV, newspapers and outdoors experienced with the Olympic Games and dot.com business. Therefore, the downturn in 2001 is not as severe as for some media". With ACP increasing its market share (46%), the concentration of magazine publishers makes Australia a difficult market to enter. However, with a population base of more than three times the size of Hong Kong, Australia remains a financially rewarding modern market one cannot ignore.

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"The World Cup football tournament and the presidential election will boost business and consumer confidence in 2002, which will translate into a small improvement in ad spend. The bright spot is actually the premium magazine sector, which is attracting new readers". Zenith Optimedia predicts Korean TV ad cost will surge to double digit growth in 2003 and 2004, creating a transfer of advertising from broadcast to print media. Therefore, the Korean magazine industry should experience a sustained double digit growth in 2003 and 2004.

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"Several positive signs will, we hope, emerge towards the end of 2002 (…). Thanks to the WTO, there will be more imported products fighting for a share of advertising voice. Late recovery in 2002 will however only arrest, not reverse, the rate of decline in advertising spend". The 2002 spend should be slightly below the 1999 level, but growth will resume in 2003 and 2004.

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"China is the most recession-proof market in the region due to its more highly regulated environment historically and the great economic potential for the rest of the world (…). The overall media environment will inevitably become more open with WTO entry, noting government's instinct to regulate". The magazine industry which still suffers a low market share of advertising spend - the lowest in the region - should experience significant growth over the next three years. The challenge for the Chinese magazine industry is still to demonstrate to advertisers its ability to reach specific audiences.

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"Politically, economically and socially, Indonesia is still in bad shape. But advertising is on an upward trend and we predict it will go on rising next year, with an increase of about 17%". The magazine industry is expanding rapidly and gaining an increasing share of ad spend as new international magazines enter the market.

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"Growth in Thailand has slowed in the wake of recession in Japan and the US". However, the magazine industry has experienced two consecutive years of double digit growth and started to increase rapidly its share of advertising spend among other media.

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"A recent poll of business sentiment showed a marked deterioration in the outlook for the economy. This affects all sectors (…). Print pricing has remained fairly static over the past 18 months, and negotiation is becoming easier while print fights to stay on the schedules".

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"Newspapers remained by far the biggest medium in 2000, as well as the fastest growing. Magazine advertising is comparatively tiny, taking just 4% of the market in 2000, but looks set to take over as the fastest growing sector by far in 2001. Having suffered disproportionately from the Asian financial crisis in 1998, magazines returned to 26% growth in 2000 and we expect 42% growth in 2001, spectacularly outperforming the market."

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"The economy registered a 5.3% decline in the third quarter of 2001 and the recession is expected to drag into the fourth quarter. (…) Media prices are beginning to fall as a result of competition introduced this year in both the press and TV". Zenith Optimedia predicts it will take until 2003 to see the same level of advertising spending experienced in 2000. In this environment, magazines are outperforming the industry and increasing their share of advertising spending.

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Unfortunately, no reliable data is available for these countries, where specific magazine advertising spending is not isolated for the "Print" category. However, it seems the young magazine industry in the Philippines is gaining momentum.

© The Zenith Optimedia Group

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